NCAAB
Nicholls
UAB
Win Probability
Nicholls travels to face UAB in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Blazers project to 83.5 points, with their offensive execution likely to prove decisive against a Nicholls team expected to manage just 72.3. On similar matchups across eight prior games, AccuScore's model went 6–2, a record that suggests confidence in games shaped this way. For the Colonels to pull the upset, they would need to suppress UAB's scoring while climbing well above their own projection; the combined score has a 47% chance of clearing the market total, reflecting how tight that offensive battle would need to be.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UAB | EV | NICH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -850 | -4.0% | +570 | +9.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1000 | -4.7% | +600 | +11.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -850 | -4.0% | +575 | +9.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1274 | -5.6% | +442 | -2.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 155.5 | -122 | -4.8% | +100 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -5.0% | -110 | +0.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 155.5 | -147 | -8.2% | -116 | -3.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UAB 82% to beat Nicholls (18%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UAB the more likely winner at 82%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UAB a 82% chance of beating Nicholls, against 18% for Nicholls. UAB are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Nicholls project to finish 14.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UAB (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.8–15.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Nicholls and UAB come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.