NCAAB
New Haven
Rutgers
Win Probability
New Haven travels to face Rutgers in a matchup the simulation favors decisively toward the home side. The Scarlet Knights' offensive pressure will be the decisive factor: Rutgers is projected to score nearly 80 points, well above New Haven's expected output. On games where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 97 percent of the time across 513 graded contests. For New Haven to pull the upset, the Chargers would need to slow Rutgers' pace significantly and force the kind of defensive breakdown that rarely materializes in spots this lopsided.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | RUTG | EV | NHVN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -24.5 | -110 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -24.5 | -115 | -12.7% | -105 | +8.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -24.5 | -110 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -24.5 | -110 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -24.5 | -110 | -11.9% | -110 | +7.4% |
| Book | RUTG | EV | NHVN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -1.3% | +2500 | -4.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.3% | +2800 | +0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -1.3% | +4000 | +21.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 137.5 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 138.5 | -105 | -4.5% | -115 | -0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 138 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 60.1%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Rutgers 97% to beat New Haven (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Rutgers the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Rutgers a 97% chance of beating New Haven, against 4% for New Haven. Rutgers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
New Haven (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Rutgers project to finish 13.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How New Haven and Rutgers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.