Loyola Maryland
Mount St. Mary's
Win Probability
Mount St. Mary's hosts Loyola Maryland in a game where the simulation favors the home side clearly. The Mountaineers' interior presence will be tested early; if Mount St. Mary's can establish control inside, the visitor's path to an upset narrows considerably. On similar-shaped games across the model's record, the favored side won 68% of the time. For Loyola Maryland to pull the upset, their perimeter shooting would need to stay hot enough to overcome a likely disadvantage in the paint, where Mount St. Mary's should impose its will.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MSM | EV | L-MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6.5 | -102 | -2.8% | -118 | -1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -120 | -3.2% | -102 | -1.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -6 | -110 | -2.8% | -110 | -1.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -5.5 | -120 | -3.2% | -104 | -2.0% |
| Book | MSM | EV | L-MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -244 | -2.3% | +200 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -256 | -2.9% | +205 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -250 | -2.6% | +200 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -250 | -2.6% | +205 | -0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -244 | -2.3% | +200 | -1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -6.3% | -105 | +2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -6.3% | -105 | +2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -5.4% | -110 | +0.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 32.3%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Mount St. Mary's 68% to beat Loyola Maryland (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Mount St. Mary's the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Mount St. Mary's a 68% chance of beating Loyola Maryland, against 32% for Loyola Maryland. Mount St. Mary's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Loyola Maryland (0-1 so far) project to finish 12.3–15.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Mount St. Mary's (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.3–16.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola Maryland | 12.3–15.7 | 9% | 8% |
| Mount St. Mary's | 13.3–16.7 | 6% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Loyola Maryland and Mount St. Mary's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Loyola Maryland have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Mount St. Mary's have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).