NCAAB • Sat, Nov 7, 00:30
Arkansas State travels to face Alabama in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the home side. The Red Wolves will need to contain Alabama's offensive threats, though the model projects the Crimson Tide's depth will prove too much to overcome. An Arkansas State upset would require a shooting performance well above projection and Alabama to stumble in ways the 50,000 simulations did not anticipate.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
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Arkansas State (1-0 so far) project to finish 18.0–11.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Alabama (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.6–9.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 89% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 18.0–11.0 | 14% | 14% |
| Alabama | 20.6–9.4 | 15% | 89% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama 97% to beat Arkansas State (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Alabama a 97% chance of beating Arkansas State, against 3% for Arkansas State. Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Arkansas State and Alabama come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2023: Arkansas State 0, Alabama 1. The last meeting, on Dec 3, 2023, finished Arkansas State 65, Alabama 89.