NCAAB
Delaware
Wisconsin
Win Probability
Delaware travels to face Wisconsin in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Nolan Winter projects at 47% to exceed 30 points, rebounds and assists, while Austin Rapp sits at 46% for the same threshold—both well above Delaware's leading scorer Jameel Brown, who has a 46% chance of surpassing 20 combined. The game turns on Wisconsin's depth and spacing advantage; across similar win-probability shapes in past games, AccuScore's favoured side won all eight. For Delaware to pull the upset, bench contributions would need to elevate dramatically while the Badgers' secondary scorers underperform their norms.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | WIS | EV | DEL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -25.5 | -105 | -6.5% | -115 | +1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -24.5 | -120 | -6.4% | -102 | +1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -25.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -25.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +2.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -25.5 | -110 | -7.4% | -110 | +2.9% |
| Book | WIS | EV | DEL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +2200 | -16.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +2800 | -7.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -1.0% | +3500 | +2.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -115 | -5.4% | -105 | +1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -6.6% | -110 | +2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 156.5 | -105 | -5.6% | -115 | +0.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +1.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.4%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 97% to beat Delaware (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wisconsin a 97% chance of beating Delaware, against 3% for Delaware. Wisconsin are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Delaware and Wisconsin come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Delaware project to finish 11.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wisconsin (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.4–11.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 69% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →