Southern Miss
Iowa State
Win Probability
Southern Miss travels to Iowa State in a matchup the model heavily favors the Cyclones to win. On games shaped this decisively, AccuScore's pick has won 97% of the time across 513 graded contests. The simulation hinges on Iowa State's offensive output: the Cyclones project to 86.7 points, well above what Southern Miss is expected to muster. For the Golden Eagles to pull off the upset, they would need to both suppress Iowa State's scoring and mount an offensive performance well above their projection. Southern Miss has the talent to compete, but the numbers offer little reason to expect anything other than a home victory.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ISU | EV | USM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -30.5 | -110 | -8.7% | -110 | +4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -30.5 | -110 | -8.7% | -110 | +4.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -30.5 | -110 | -8.7% | -110 | +4.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -30.5 | -110 | -8.7% | -110 | +4.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -30.5 | -105 | -7.7% | -115 | +3.0% |
| Book | ISU | EV | USM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | +0.1% | +3300 | -38.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -5.4% | -105 | +1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.7%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State 99% to beat Southern Miss (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa State a 99% chance of beating Southern Miss, against 1% for Southern Miss. Iowa State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern Miss project to finish 14.9–15.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Iowa State (0-1 so far) project to finish 21.6–8.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 84% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | 14.9–15.1 | 7% | 7% |
| Iowa State | 21.6–8.4 | 16% | 84% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Southern Miss and Iowa State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.