NCAAB
Stony Brook
Northwestern
Win Probability
Stony Brook travels to Northwestern in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model projects a Northwestern victory, and historically in games shaped this way, AccuScore's lean has held in 92 of 100 comparable contests. Stony Brook's path to an upset runs through controlling pace and three-point shooting; Northwestern's depth gives it room to weather cold stretches from distance. For the Seawolves to pull off the result, they would need to turn this into a grind-it-out game while hitting at a rate well above their simulation expectation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | NU | EV | STBK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -12.5 | -108 | -0.2% | -112 | -4.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -12.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -12.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -12.5 | -114 | -1.5% | -109 | -3.7% |
| Book | NU | EV | STBK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1111 | -2.1% | +700 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -909 | -1.2% | +610 | -7.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1000 | -1.7% | +625 | -6.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1111 | -2.1% | +700 | -1.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -1000 | -1.7% | +575 | -9.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -110 | +0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -110 | +0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -110 | +0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -110 | +0.8% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -114 | -0.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern 88% to beat Stony Brook (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northwestern a 88% chance of beating Stony Brook, against 12% for Stony Brook. Northwestern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Stony Brook project to finish 14.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northwestern (1-0 so far) project to finish 17.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 42% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stony Brook | 14.4–14.6 | 6% | 6% |
| Northwestern | 17.2–14.8 | 1% | 42% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Stony Brook and Northwestern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.