NCAAB
Southern
TCU
Win Probability
Southern travels to Fort Worth to face TCU, and the simulation decisively favors the Horned Frogs at home. AccuScore projects a decisive margin, with the game turning on whether Southern can generate enough offensive production to stay competitive; the visitors are projected to fall well short of the pace needed to keep this close. On the 513 games where the model leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 97% of the time. For Southern to pull off the upset, the Horned Frogs would need to stumble significantly below their projected output while Southern's offense finds unexpected rhythm.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | TCU | EV | SOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -27.5 | -108 | -7.7% | -112 | +3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -26.5 | -120 | -6.7% | -102 | +2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -27.5 | -110 | -8.1% | -110 | +3.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -27 | -110 | -6.4% | -110 | +2.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -26.5 | -115 | -5.9% | -105 | +1.5% |
| Book | TCU | EV | SOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -0.3% | +2500 | -29.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -0.3% | +3300 | -22.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -4.7% | -105 | +0.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes TCU 98% to beat Southern (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes TCU the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives TCU a 98% chance of beating Southern, against 2% for Southern. TCU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern (0-1 so far) project to finish 12.9–16.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
TCU (1-0 so far) project to finish 20.0–10.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 61% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Southern and TCU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.