NCAAB
Portland
UT Arlington
Win Probability
Portland travels to face UT Arlington in a matchup the simulation favours slightly to the home side. The game hinges on whether these teams can keep the combined score down; AccuScore's model gives just a 48% chance the total clears the market line. In similar spots across eight other past games, the favoured side won five times. Both offences project to operate near the edges of their ranges, with each team's output critical to the outcome. UT Arlington would need Portland to struggle shooting or to force enough turnovers to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UTA | EV | PORT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -115 | +1.7% | -105 | -6.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -120 | +0.7% | -102 | -5.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1.5 | -118 | +1.1% | -102 | -5.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | +2.8% | -110 | -7.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +1 | -115 | +0.6% | -105 | -5.1% |
| Book | UTA | EV | PORT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -105 | +1.4% | -115 | -5.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -102 | +2.2% | -118 | -6.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -105 | +1.4% | -115 | -5.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -105 | +1.4% | -115 | -5.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -108 | -4.4% | -112 | -0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.3%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes UT Arlington 53% to beat Portland (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UT Arlington the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UT Arlington a 53% chance of beating Portland, against 47% for Portland. UT Arlington are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Portland project to finish 9.3–19.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UT Arlington project to finish 16.2–12.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland | 9.3–19.7 | 1% | 1% |
| UT Arlington | 16.2–12.8 | 24% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →