North Dakota State
San Francisco
Win Probability
San Francisco hosts North Dakota State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Andy Stefonowicz has a 45% chance of exceeding 22 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Ben Oosterbaan projects at 45% to surpass 25—but San Francisco's depth matters more here. Ismaila Diagne and Rob Diaz III both sit near 47-48% to beat their thresholds, yet the Dons' supporting cast, including A. Bashir at 49% for 11-plus, gives them the scoring spread the Bison will struggle to match. AccuScore's model has favored the home side this strongly in 1,316 graded games and won 81% of them. North Dakota State would need to contain San Francisco's secondary scorers and convert at an unusually high rate to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | SF | EV | NDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8.5 | -118 | -3.3% | -102 | -1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -105 | -4.0% | -115 | -0.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9.5 | -105 | -4.0% | -115 | -0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -9 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -9 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Book | SF | EV | NDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -455 | -2.4% | +350 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -455 | -2.4% | +350 | -0.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -455 | -2.4% | +340 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -435 | -2.0% | +335 | -2.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -455 | -2.4% | +340 | -1.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | -0.5% | -105 | -4.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -110 | -2.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 146.5 | -105 | -0.8% | -115 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 145.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco 78% to beat North Dakota State (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Francisco a 78% chance of beating North Dakota State, against 22% for North Dakota State. San Francisco are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Dakota State (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Francisco (1-0 so far) project to finish 18.5–12.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 15.3–13.7 | 25% | 21% |
| San Francisco | 18.5–12.5 | 8% | 16% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How North Dakota State and San Francisco come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Dakota State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).