NCAAB
California Baptist
Oregon State
Win Probability
Moneyline
CBU
8.2% win prob
Moneyline
ORST
91.8% win prob
Oregon State hosts California Baptist in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Beavers' depth should prove decisive; the model projects Oregon State's offence to generate 84.4 points, well above California Baptist's projected 68.1. California Baptist will need to force turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities to stay within range, as Oregon State's ability to convert possessions into points is the game's deciding factor. AccuScore's model has won 97% of 513 games where it favoured a side this strongly, and across eight similar matchups the favoured team won all eight. For the Baptists to pull the upset, they would need an uncharacteristic shooting night from Oregon State and to win the rebounding battle decisively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State 92% to beat California Baptist (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon State a 92% chance of beating California Baptist, against 8% for California Baptist. Oregon State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How California Baptist and Oregon State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
California Baptist have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: California Baptist 1, Oregon State 0. The last meeting, on Nov 28, 2025, finished California Baptist 75, Oregon State 69.
California Baptist (0-1 so far) project to finish 18.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon State (1-0 so far) project to finish 16.4–14.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist | 18.4–13.6 | 18% | 15% |
| Oregon State | 16.4–14.6 | 2% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →