NCAAB
Toledo
Marshall
Win Probability
Toledo travels to Marshall in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. The Thunderbirds project to 77.3 points while Marshall is projected at 79.8, a gap small enough that the game hinges on whether either offense can generate separation late. The simulation favors Marshall in a range where it has won 57 percent of comparable games across the sport. Toledo would need to outpace its projection substantially and hold Marshall below theirs to pull off the upset, a task made harder by a combined-score probability of 47 percent favoring an under-script outcome.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | MRSH | EV | TOL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -165 | -2.9% | +135 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -541 | -15.3% | -206 | -19.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -115 | -1.4% | -105 | -3.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -2.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 156.5 | -10969 | -25.1% | -10969 | -24.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Marshall 59% to beat Toledo (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Marshall the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Marshall a 59% chance of beating Toledo, against 41% for Toledo. Marshall are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Toledo (0-2 so far) project to finish 16.9–14.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Marshall (1-0 so far) project to finish 16.4–11.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Toledo and Marshall come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 3 times since 2017: Toledo 1, Marshall 2. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2025, finished Marshall 85, Toledo 73.