NCAAB
Cal State Fullerton
South Dakota
Win Probability
Cal State Fullerton travels to face South Dakota in a contest the simulation favors slightly to the home side. The matchup hinges on whether either team can consistently score in the mid-80s; both offenses project to operate near that threshold. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side has won 57% of the time across a sample of 6,691 graded contests. For Cal State Fullerton to prevail on the road, the Aztecs would need to exceed their projected offensive output while holding South Dakota below its expected total. The combined score lands right at the tipping point, making execution on both ends decisive.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SDAK | EV | CSUF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -152 | -6.5% | -141 | -9.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 168.5 | -105 | -3.7% | -115 | -0.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Dakota 53% to beat Cal State Fullerton (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Dakota the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives South Dakota a 53% chance of beating Cal State Fullerton, against 48% for Cal State Fullerton. South Dakota are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal State Fullerton (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.0–16.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
South Dakota (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.6–17.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal State Fullerton | 14.0–16.0 | 7% | 7% |
| South Dakota | 10.6–17.4 | 5% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal State Fullerton and South Dakota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cal State Fullerton have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
South Dakota have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).