Omaha
Utah State
Win Probability
Moneyline
OMA
-27590
1.2% win prob
EV -49.4%
Polymarket
Moneyline
USU
-10969
98.8% win prob
EV -0.1%
Polymarket
When Omaha travels to face Utah State, the simulation decisively favors the home side. Utah State's offense will need to exploit Omaha's perimeter defense; the Aggies project to 87.4 points with balanced scoring expected from multiple contributors. For Omaha to pull off the upset, it would need to hold Utah State well below its projected output while generating efficient offense—a steep challenge given the disparity the model sees. In games where AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward one side, that side has won 97% of 513 graded matchups.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | USU | EV | OMA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -0.1% | -27590 | -49.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah State 99% to beat Omaha (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah State the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah State a 99% chance of beating Omaha, against 1% for Omaha. Utah State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Omaha project to finish 8.6–17.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah State (1-0 so far) project to finish 22.7–8.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 66% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omaha | 8.6–17.4 | 5% | 5% |
| Utah State | 22.7–8.3 | 25% | 66% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Omaha and Utah State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.