NCAAB
Oakland
UC Santa Barbara
Win Probability
Moneyline
OAK
20.8% win prob
Moneyline
UCSB
79.2% win prob
Oakland travels to face UC Santa Barbara in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the hosts. The Gauchos project to win by nearly ten points, with the game hinging on whether Oakland can keep pace offensively—the visitors are projected at 70.9 points, well below UC Santa Barbara's 79.9. On games where the model has leaned this strongly toward one side, that side won 81 percent of the time across 1,316 graded contests. For Oakland to pull the upset, they would need to exceed their offensive projection substantially while holding UC Santa Barbara below its expected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UC Santa Barbara 79% to beat Oakland (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UC Santa Barbara the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UC Santa Barbara a 79% chance of beating Oakland, against 21% for Oakland. UC Santa Barbara are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Oakland and UC Santa Barbara come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oakland (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.6–17.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UC Santa Barbara project to finish 16.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oakland | 14.6–17.4 | 18% | 16% |
| UC Santa Barbara | 16.7–13.3 | 14% | 12% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →