NCAAB
VMI
UTSA
Win Probability
Moneyline
VMI
29.4% win prob
Moneyline
UTSA
70.6% win prob
VMI travels to San Antonio to face UTSA, where the simulation strongly favours the home side. The Roadrunners have the clearer path to victory, though the game turns on whether VMI can keep pace in transition—AccuScore projects a relatively tight scoring margin that hinges on execution in open court. In games where the model has leaned this decisively toward the home team, that side won 81% of the time across 1,316 graded matchups. For the Keydets to pull the upset, they would need to force a sluggish pace and keep UTSA's transition game in check, a tall order on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 161.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UTSA 71% to beat VMI (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UTSA the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UTSA a 71% chance of beating VMI, against 29% for VMI. UTSA are at home and favoured on these numbers.
VMI (0-1 so far) project to finish 6.7–21.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UTSA (0-1 so far) project to finish 7.7–22.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How VMI and UTSA come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.