NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
1-11
Orlando Magic
4-7
Win Probability
The Milwaukee Bucks travel to face the Orlando Magic in a matchup where the home side's advantage looms large in the simulation. Franz Wagner of the Magic has a 47% chance of exceeding 40 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jaime Jaquez of the Bucks projects at 49% to clear 25 in the same category—a gap that reflects Orlando's overall depth. The game hinges on whether Milwaukee's visitors can generate enough offensive pressure to stay within range, as the simulation projects a comfortable margin for the hosts. When AccuScore has favoured a side this decisively in similar matchups, that side won 75% of the time across 4,056 graded games. The Bucks would need atypical efficiency and ball movement to overcome the Magic's projected scoring volume.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | ORL | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -8.5 | -122 | -2.3% | -117 | -5.9% |
| Book | ORL | EV | MIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -404 | -3.7% | +331 | +5.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -396 | -3.5% | +338 | +6.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 222.5 | -122 | -1.5% | -122 | -7.5% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 222.5 | -128 | -2.5% | -133 | -9.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Orlando Magic 74% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Orlando Magic the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Orlando Magic a 74% chance of beating Milwaukee Bucks, against 26% for Milwaukee Bucks. Orlando Magic are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Milwaukee Bucks (1-11 so far) project to finish 20.4–61.6 and make the playoffs in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Orlando Magic (4-7 so far) project to finish 39.9–42.1 and make the playoffs in 58% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Bucks | 20.4–61.6 | <1% | 5% |
| Orlando Magic | 39.9–42.1 | 23% | 58% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Milwaukee Bucks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Orlando Magic have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 63 times since 2010: Milwaukee Bucks 40, Orlando Magic 23. The last meeting, on Mar 8, 2026, finished Orlando Magic 130, Milwaukee Bucks 91.
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 173-379 as underdog, and 306-381 on the road (45% of 687 games, 2010–2026).
Orlando Magic are 287-176 as favourite and 235-567 as underdog, and 323-338 at home (49% of 661 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIL | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 511-251 | 287-176 |
| As underdog | 173-379 | 235-567 |
| At home | 419-270 | 323-338 |
| On the road | 306-381 | 226-444 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →