NCAAB
Lafayette
Saint Joseph's
Win Probability
Saint Joseph's hosts Lafayette in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the Hawks. The model has Lafayette scoring in the low 60s while projecting Saint Joseph's in the low 80s, a gap that hinges on whether Lafayette can generate enough offensive flow to stay close. On games shaped this way—where the favored side carried 90 to 100 percent win probability—AccuScore's pick won 97 percent of 513 graded contests. For Lafayette to pull the upset, the Explorers would need to reverse the scoring dynamic entirely and turn this into a lower-tempo affair where their offense clicks at an unexpected level.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | JOES | EV | LAF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3200 | -1.6% | +1400 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4000 | -1.9% | +1400 | -4.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -3000 | -1.5% | +1500 | -1.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -1.7% | +222 | -40.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Joseph's 94% to beat Lafayette (6%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Joseph's the more likely winner at 94%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Joseph's a 94% chance of beating Lafayette, against 6% for Lafayette. Saint Joseph's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Lafayette (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.1–19.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Joseph's (1-0 so far) project to finish 16.9–12.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lafayette | 10.1–19.9 | 3% | 3% |
| Saint Joseph's | 16.9–12.1 | 6% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Lafayette and Saint Joseph's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2023: Lafayette 0, Saint Joseph's 1. The last meeting, on Nov 5, 2023, finished Lafayette 60, Saint Joseph's 81.