NCAAB
Northern Arizona
New Mexico
Win Probability
Northern Arizona travels to face New Mexico in a game where the simulation strongly favors the home Lobos. The model projects a decisive margin fueled by New Mexico's offensive firepower, though the game hinges on whether Northern Arizona can keep pace from three-point range and limit turnovers. In 513 games where AccuScore leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 97 percent of the time. For the Lumberjacks to pull the upset, they would need to force New Mexico into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night while staying within striking distance through the second half.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | UNM | EV | NAU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10000 | -0.6% | +3000 | -15.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -20000 | -0.9% | +3500 | -10.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -15000 | -0.8% | +4500 | +0.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -0.7% | +232 | -46.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 154.5 | -129 | -8.0% | -135 | -4.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 98% to beat Northern Arizona (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico a 98% chance of beating Northern Arizona, against 2% for Northern Arizona. New Mexico are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Arizona (0-1 so far) project to finish 7.2–20.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico (1-0 so far) project to finish 23.9–7.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 59% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona | 7.2–20.8 | 2% | 2% |
| New Mexico | 23.9–7.1 | 45% | 59% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Arizona and New Mexico come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.