NCAAB
Mercer
Davidson
Win Probability
Mercer travels to Davidson in a matchup the simulation favors decisively for the home side. The Bears project to score around 69 points, while the Wildcats are expected to eclipse 80, a margin that hinges on Davidson's ability to control pace and limit Mercer's efficiency. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 92% of the time across 760 graded matchups. For Mercer to pull the upset, the Bears would need to execute well outside the simulation's expectations and force Davidson into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | DAV | EV | MER | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -11.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -11 | -115 | -2.3% | -105 | -2.1% |
| Book | DAV | EV | MER | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -780 | -2.3% | +530 | -1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -750 | -2.1% | +525 | -1.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -5.3% | -110 | +0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Davidson 85% to beat Mercer (15%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Davidson the more likely winner at 85%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Davidson a 85% chance of beating Mercer, against 15% for Mercer. Davidson are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mercer (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.5–16.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Davidson (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mercer and Davidson come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.