NCAAB
St. Bonaventure
Canisius
Win Probability
St. Bonaventure travels to Canisius as the simulation's decisive choice in this matchup. The model projects a Bonnies victory built on offensive execution, with both Dominick Welch and Nate Santos expected to reach double figures. Canisius will need to limit three-point shooting and control the pace to keep this within range, since AccuScore's model favours St. Bonaventure decisively when shaped this way—that lean held up in 81% of 1,316 past games of similar strength. For the hosts to pull the upset, they would need to force a low-scoring grind and get contributions beyond their projected floor.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CAN | EV | SBU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +7.5 | -120 | -7.5% | -102 | +3.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +8 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.6% |
| Book | CAN | EV | SBU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +245 | -8.1% | -310 | +0.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +250 | -7.5% | -320 | -0.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -115 | -4.0% | -105 | -0.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes St. Bonaventure 76% to beat Canisius (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Bonaventure the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Canisius a 24% chance of beating St. Bonaventure, against 76% for St. Bonaventure. Canisius are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
St. Bonaventure (0-1 so far) project to finish 15.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Canisius (0-1 so far) project to finish 9.2–21.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Bonaventure | 15.5–15.5 | 3% | 7% |
| Canisius | 9.2–21.8 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How St. Bonaventure and Canisius come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
St. Bonaventure have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2011: St. Bonaventure 5, Canisius 2. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2025, finished Canisius 70, St. Bonaventure 89.