NCAAB
Pacific
Bradley
Win Probability
Pacific travels to Bradley in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the home side. The projected offensive output is modest on both ends—Pacific is expected to struggle to eclipse 70 points—and Bradley's ability to stay within that tight scoring band will determine the outcome. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side won 68% of the time. Pacific would need a significant offensive lift or an uncharacteristic defensive breakdown from Bradley to overtake a host that the model projects to pull clear by a small margin.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | BRAD | EV | PAC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | -114 | +5.3% | -106 | -10.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -1.5 | -115 | +5.1% | -105 | -9.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1.5 | -110 | +6.2% | -110 | -10.8% |
| Book | BRAD | EV | PAC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -125 | +5.3% | +104 | -10.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -125 | +5.3% | +105 | -10.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -125 | +5.3% | +105 | -10.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 144.5 | -115 | -6.3% | -105 | +1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 58.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Bradley 62% to beat Pacific (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Bradley the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Bradley a 62% chance of beating Pacific, against 39% for Pacific. Bradley are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pacific project to finish 15.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Bradley project to finish 17.3–11.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →