Fresno State
UC San Diego
Win Probability
UC San Diego hosts Fresno State in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the home side. The Tritons' offense will need to capitalize early; the projection shows them outscoring the Bulldogs by roughly eight points, a margin that hinges on ball security and transition efficiency in the first half. On games shaped like this one—where the favored side carried a 70–80% lean—AccuScore's model won 81% of the time across 1,316 graded contests. For Fresno State to pull off the upset, their defense would need to force turnovers at an elite rate and limit UC San Diego's pace, a combination that rarely materializes on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UCSD | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -7.0% | -110 | +2.5% |
| Book | UCSD | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -490 | -4.1% | +375 | +6.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -475 | -3.9% | +360 | +4.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -7.6% | -110 | +3.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.5% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes UC San Diego 76% to beat Fresno State (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UC San Diego the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UC San Diego a 76% chance of beating Fresno State, against 24% for Fresno State. UC San Diego are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Fresno State project to finish 10.5–19.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UC San Diego project to finish 14.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State | 10.5–19.5 | <1% | 1% |
| UC San Diego | 14.5–14.5 | 9% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →