NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
6-6
Miami Heat
5-6
Win Probability
The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Miami to face the Heat in a matchup the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. Donovan Mitchell has a 50% chance of exceeding 35 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Bam Adebayo sits just below that threshold at 48% to surpass 37—a gap that could prove decisive in what projects as an extremely tight contest. The game likely turns on perimeter creation; James Harden's 50% probability of beating 29 combined tallies against Miami's wing depth will shape how much offensive flexibility the Cavaliers can sustain. On games shaped similarly to this one, AccuScore's favored side has won 56% of the time historically. For Cleveland to pull the upset on the road, the team would need its role players to outperform their projections while containing Miami's transition game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | MIA | EV | CLE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -1.5 | -141 | -4.3% | -130 | -8.9% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -2.5 | -121 | -3.6% | -131 | -6.6% |
| Book | MIA | EV | CLE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -136 | -1.9% | +114 | -2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -128 | -0.7% | +111 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 235.5 | -122 | +0.6% | -122 | -9.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat 55% to beat Cleveland Cavaliers (45%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Miami Heat the more likely winner at 55%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Heat a 55% chance of beating Cleveland Cavaliers, against 45% for Cleveland Cavaliers. Miami Heat are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oct 30
Why Miami Heat's Playoff Odds Jumped 8.5 Points Overnight
AccuScore's simulation lifted the Miami Heat's playoff odds as division rivals Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic both slipped, with Indiana Pacers up next.
Oct 23
Are the Cavs Being Overlooked After Losing to the 76ers? The Numbers Say Not By Much
AccuScore's simulations give the Cleveland Cavaliers a 67.8% playoff probability and the Philadelphia 76ers 80% after Philly's 29-point comeback win.
Cleveland Cavaliers (6-6 so far) project to finish 44.3–37.7 and make the playoffs in 73% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami Heat (5-6 so far) project to finish 40.7–41.3 and make the playoffs in 60% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 44.3–37.7 | 23% | 73% |
| Miami Heat | 40.7–41.3 | 25% | 60% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cleveland Cavaliers have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Miami Heat have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Cleveland Cavaliers 21, Miami Heat 40. The last meeting, on Mar 27, 2026, finished Miami Heat 128, Cleveland Cavaliers 149.
Cleveland Cavaliers are 470-221 as favourite and 197-448 as underdog, and 301-398 on the road (43% of 699 games, 2010–2026).
Miami Heat are 591-273 as favourite and 208-301 as underdog, and 470-245 at home (66% of 715 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | CLE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 470-221 | 591-273 |
| As underdog | 197-448 | 208-301 |
| At home | 407-298 | 470-245 |
| On the road | 301-398 | 367-356 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →