Utah Jazz
1-11
Houston Rockets
9-3
Win Probability
The Houston Rockets host a struggling Utah Jazz side in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home team. Alperen Sengun has a 49% chance of exceeding 41 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Keyonte George of the Jazz projects to clear 28 in the same category at just 47% probability—a gap that encapsulates Houston's depth advantage. The game hinges on whether Utah can generate enough offensive creation to stay close; AccuScore's model on similarly shaped matchups has won 84 of 100 comparable games. For the Jazz to pull the upset, their role players would need to outperform projections while Houston's supporting cast underperforms.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | HOU | EV | UT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -16.5 | -153 | -9.6% | -141 | -6.3% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -17.5 | -113 | -6.8% | -137 | -3.1% |
| Book | HOU | EV | UT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -1236 | -2.5% | +841 | +6.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1210 | -2.4% | +963 | +14.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 218.5 | -122 | -0.5% | -113 | -7.0% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 218.5 | -133 | -2.3% | -132 | -9.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 88% to beat Utah Jazz (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Houston Rockets a 88% chance of beating Utah Jazz, against 12% for Utah Jazz. Houston Rockets are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Utah Jazz (1-11 so far) project to finish 23.7–58.3 and make the playoffs in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Houston Rockets (9-3 so far) project to finish 54.9–27.1 and make the playoffs in 88% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 23.7–58.3 | <1% | 4% |
| Houston Rockets | 54.9–27.1 | 39% | 88% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah Jazz have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Houston Rockets have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 66 times since 2011: Utah Jazz 26, Houston Rockets 40. The last meeting, on Apr 3, 2026, finished Utah Jazz 106, Houston Rockets 140.
Utah Jazz are 420-188 as favourite and 195-476 as underdog, and 260-413 on the road (39% of 673 games, 2010–2026).
Houston Rockets are 548-252 as favourite and 179-334 as underdog, and 437-256 at home (63% of 693 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | UT | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 420-188 | 548-252 |
| As underdog | 195-476 | 179-334 |
| At home | 386-285 | 437-256 |
| On the road | 260-413 | 309-377 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →