NBA
Golden State Warriors
8-4
San Antonio Spurs
10-2
Win Probability
San Antonio Spurs host Golden State Warriors in a matchup the simulation favors decisively toward the home side. Victor Wembanyama has a 47% chance of exceeding 56 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Yaxel Lendeborg projects at 49% to surpass 31 for the visiting Warriors. The game hinges on whether Golden State can generate enough offensive creation to keep pace; the model projects a ten-point margin that would require the Warriors to exceed their simulated output substantially. In prior games with this win-probability shape across different matchups, AccuScore's favored side won 84% of 2,061 contests. San Antonio would need to underperform its projection while allowing Brandin Podziemski to exceed 28 combined points for the visitors to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SA | EV | GS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | -13.5 | -122 | -14.8% | -122 | +5.8% |
| ProphetX ↗ | -13.5 | -128 | -15.5% | -139 | +2.7% |
| Book | SA | EV | GS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -660 | -3.9% | +530 | +13.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -646 | -3.8% | +540 | +14.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 218.5 | -122 | -0.5% | -127 | -9.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs 80% to beat Golden State Warriors (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Antonio Spurs a 80% chance of beating Golden State Warriors, against 20% for Golden State Warriors. San Antonio Spurs are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Golden State Warriors (8-4 so far) project to finish 50.4–31.6 and make the playoffs in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Antonio Spurs (10-2 so far) project to finish 57.9–24.1 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 50.4–31.6 | 40% | 78% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 57.9–24.1 | 54% | 93% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Golden State Warriors have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
San Antonio Spurs have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 64 times since 2010: Golden State Warriors 31, San Antonio Spurs 33. The last meeting, on Apr 1, 2026, finished San Antonio Spurs 127, Golden State Warriors 113.
Golden State Warriors are 668-236 as favourite and 164-290 as underdog, and 375-337 on the road (53% of 712 games, 2010–2026).
San Antonio Spurs are 645-213 as favourite and 162-312 as underdog, and 468-225 at home (68% of 693 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | GS | SA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 668-236 | 645-213 |
| As underdog | 164-290 | 162-312 |
| At home | 491-224 | 468-225 |
| On the road | 375-337 | 354-347 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →