NCAAB
Denver
UC Riverside
Win Probability
UC Riverside hosts Denver in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. James Evans Jr. of UC Riverside has a 49% chance of exceeding 23 points, rebounds and assists, while Carson Johnson of Denver sits at 47% for the same threshold—a margin that reflects the tightness of individual performances despite the team-level separation. The game turns on UC Riverside's depth: five of its players project at roughly 20-plus combined points, rebounds and assists, against Denver's more concentrated offensive load. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 68% of the time across 2,158 graded matchups. Denver would need an outsize night from Johnson or Shaun Wysocki, who projects at 49% to clear 21 combined, to overcome the Highlanders' balanced attack.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | UCR | EV | DEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -2 | -110 | +4.4% | -110 | -8.8% |
| Book | UCR | EV | DEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -140 | +2.3% | +115 | -8.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes UC Riverside 61% to beat Denver (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UC Riverside the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UC Riverside a 61% chance of beating Denver, against 39% for Denver. UC Riverside are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Denver (0-1 so far) project to finish 11.2–18.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UC Riverside project to finish 15.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver | 11.2–18.8 | 1% | 1% |
| UC Riverside | 15.0–15.0 | 9% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Denver and UC Riverside come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.