NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
8-3
Sacramento Kings
1-10
Win Probability
The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Sacramento to face the Kings in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the visitors. Damian Lillard has a 49% chance of exceeding 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Domantas Sabonis projects at 47% to clear 29 for the home side—matching production levels that will define how competitive Sacramento can stay. The game turns on whether the Kings can generate enough perimeter scoring; Zach LaVine sits at 49% to surpass 21 combined, the highest probability on their roster. In games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favoured side won 84% of the time across a sample of 2,061. Sacramento would need to hold Portland well below projection and get contributions across multiple scorers to engineer an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SAC | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | +10.5 | -113 | -2.6% | -135 | -6.7% |
| ProphetX ↗ | +10.5 | -109 | -1.8% | -143 | -7.8% |
| Book | SAC | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +398 | -2.2% | -490 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +381 | -3.8% | -448 | -0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig ↗ | 230.5 | -122 | -5.4% | -125 | -4.1% |
| ProphetX ↗ | 230.5 | -128 | -6.4% | -139 | -6.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers 81% to beat Sacramento Kings (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sacramento Kings a 19% chance of beating Portland Trail Blazers, against 81% for Portland Trail Blazers. Sacramento Kings are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Portland Trail Blazers (8-3 so far) project to finish 51.1–30.9 and make the playoffs in 79% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sacramento Kings (1-10 so far) project to finish 20.6–61.4 and make the playoffs in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 51.1–30.9 | 27% | 79% |
| Sacramento Kings | 20.6–61.4 | <1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland Trail Blazers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Sacramento Kings have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 58 times since 2011: Portland Trail Blazers 37, Sacramento Kings 21. The last meeting, on Oct 23, 2026, finished Portland Trail Blazers 128, Sacramento Kings 120.
Portland Trail Blazers are 418-181 as favourite and 220-471 as underdog, and 275-412 on the road (40% of 687 games, 2010–2026).
Sacramento Kings are 229-166 as favourite and 247-589 as underdog, and 287-362 at home (44% of 649 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | POR | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 418-181 | 229-166 |
| As underdog | 220-471 | 247-589 |
| At home | 400-276 | 287-362 |
| On the road | 275-412 | 226-421 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →