NCAAB
SE Louisiana
Little Rock
Win Probability
Southeast Louisiana travels to Little Rock in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the hosts. The game hinges on offensive efficiency: AccuScore projects Little Rock to 75.4 points while Southeast Louisiana reaches 70.3, a gap that mirrors how close the total line sits to the fifty-fifty mark on whether combined scoring clears it. In prior games with a similar win-probability shape, the favored side won 68% of 2,158 matchups, though AccuScore's model won only five of eight comparable past contests. For Southeast Louisiana to pull the upset, it would need to suppress Little Rock's scoring and generate enough offensive production to overcome a home-court disadvantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | LR | EV | SELA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| Book | LR | EV | SELA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -235 | -2.3% | +190 | -2.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -7.5% | -110 | +3.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Little Rock 67% to beat SE Louisiana (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Little Rock the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Little Rock a 67% chance of beating SE Louisiana, against 33% for SE Louisiana. Little Rock are at home and favoured on these numbers.
SE Louisiana (0-1 so far) project to finish 9.8–22.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Little Rock (0-1 so far) project to finish 12.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| SE Louisiana | 9.8–22.2 | 2% | 2% |
| Little Rock | 12.1–17.9 | 8% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How SE Louisiana and Little Rock come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.