NCAAB
Iona
2-0
#13St. John's
1-0
Win Probability
St. John's hosts Iona in a matchup the simulation favors decisively. The Red Storm project to 84.7 points behind strong contributions across their roster, while Iona's 2-0 record masks the offensive firepower it will need to keep pace on the road. On games where AccuScore has leaned this heavily toward one side, that team won 97% of the time across 546 graded contests. Iona would need to generate stops at an unusual rate and force St. John's into an atypical shooting night for the upset to materialize.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SJU | EV | IONA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.6% | +6000 | +1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | +0.1% | +1719 | -34.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 144 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes St. John's 98% to beat Iona (2%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. John's the more likely winner at 98%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. John's a 98% chance of beating Iona, against 2% for Iona. St. John's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Iona (2-0 so far) project to finish 18.5–13.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
St. John's (1-0 so far) project to finish 22.5–7.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iona | 18.5–13.5 | 17% | 15% |
| St. John's | 22.5–7.5 | 28% | 85% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Iona and St. John's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Iona 0, St. John's 2. The last meeting, on Dec 13, 2025, finished Iona 64, St. John's 91.