NCAAB
Princeton
2-0
Siena
0-1
Win Probability
Princeton travels to Siena in a game the simulation barely separates—a coin-flip where the Tigers hold the slightest lean. Both teams can score: Princeton's offence projects to 73.5 points while Siena's defence allows 72.9, a margin so thin that the outcome hinges entirely on execution in the final possessions. In similar situations across 8 past games, the favoured side won just 3 times, underscoring how little separates these teams. Siena would need to keep Princeton's scoring below projection while matching its own pace to pull the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SIE | EV | PRIN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | +115 | +1.1% | -140 | -5.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -25.6% | -10969 | -23.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | -13.6% | -105 | +9.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151 | -110 | -14.0% | -110 | +9.5% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Princeton 53% to beat Siena (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Princeton the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Siena a 48% chance of beating Princeton, against 53% for Princeton. Siena are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Princeton (1-0 so far) project to finish 12.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Siena (0-1 so far) project to finish 16.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Princeton and Siena come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2011: Princeton 0, Siena 1. The last meeting, on Dec 22, 2011, finished Princeton 59, Siena 63.