North Dakota State
1-2
Cal State Bakersfield
1-0
Win Probability
Moneyline
NDSU
-582
50.9% win prob
EV -20.2%
Polymarket
Moneyline
CSUB
-351
49.1% win prob
EV -18.5%
Polymarket
# Preview This is a coin-flip. Cal State Bakersfield hosts North Dakota State in a matchup the simulation barely favours the Roadrunners, and the teams' projected outputs are separated by two-tenths of a point. The outcome turns on offensive execution: neither team is projected to pull away, and games shaped this tightly have gone the model's way 57% of the time across similar matchups. For North Dakota State to steal a road result, the Bison would need to convert their possessions at a higher rate than the projection assumes, banking on the 49% chance the game stays below the total. Cal State Bakersfield's path to victory runs through the same resource—efficient shot-making in a game where neither offence is expected to run away.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | CSUB | EV | NDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -351 | -18.5% | -582 | -20.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota State 51% to beat Cal State Bakersfield (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota State the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cal State Bakersfield a 49% chance of beating North Dakota State, against 51% for North Dakota State. Cal State Bakersfield are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
North Dakota State (0-2 so far) project to finish 15.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cal State Bakersfield project to finish 8.8–21.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 15.2–13.8 | 28% | 23% |
| Cal State Bakersfield | 8.8–21.2 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How North Dakota State and Cal State Bakersfield come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Dakota State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).