NCAAB
#10Houston
1-0
California
2-0
Win Probability
Houston travels to California as a heavy favourite in this matchup of unbeaten teams. The simulation strongly favours the Cougars to control a low-scoring affair, with the game's outcome hinging on whether California can generate enough offence to stay within striking distance. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other games, the favoured side won seven times, a 88% record that underscores Houston's strength in this spot. For the Golden Bears to pull the upset at home, they would need to turn this into a track meet and force Houston into an uncharacteristic shooting slump—a scenario the model rates as unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CAL | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | +17.5 | -110 | -6.0% | -110 | +1.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +18 | -110 | -4.2% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Book | CAL | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | +1400 | -11.8% | -2800 | -0.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | 145 | -110 | -2.7% | -110 | -1.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 144 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Houston 95% to beat California (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives California a 5% chance of beating Houston, against 95% for Houston. California are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Houston (1-0 so far) project to finish 25.1–4.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 98% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
California (1-0 so far) project to finish 13.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 25.1–4.9 | 42% | 98% |
| California | 13.5–17.5 | <1% | 8% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Houston and California come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.