Denver Nuggets
6-4
New Orleans Pelicans
4-8
Win Probability
Denver Nuggets travel to New Orleans Pelicans as clear favourites in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the visitors. Nikola Jokic has a 47% chance of exceeding 46 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Zion Williamson for the Pelicans carries a 49% chance of topping 30—a gap that captures how the model sees this game unfolding. The outcome hinges on whether New Orleans can generate consistent secondary scoring; Jeremiah Fears and Saddiq Bey would each need to exceed 26 combined points, rebounds and assists to keep pace. In 4,057 graded games shaped this way, the favoured side won 75% of the time. New Orleans can still pull an upset if the Nuggets' role players—Aaron Gordon, DeMar DeRozan and others projected near 20 combined—fall short of their benchmarks.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NO | EV | DEN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +456 | +14.2% | -564 | -4.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +500 | +19.3% | -597 | -5.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets 77% to beat New Orleans Pelicans (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Denver Nuggets the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Orleans Pelicans a 23% chance of beating Denver Nuggets, against 77% for Denver Nuggets. New Orleans Pelicans are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Denver Nuggets (6-4 so far) project to finish 46.5–35.5 and make the playoffs in 65% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Orleans Pelicans (4-8 so far) project to finish 29.1–52.9 and make the playoffs in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Nuggets | 46.5–35.5 | 12% | 65% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 29.1–52.9 | 1% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Denver Nuggets have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
New Orleans Pelicans have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 58 times since 2010: Denver Nuggets 36, New Orleans Pelicans 22. The last meeting, on Oct 28, 2026, finished Denver Nuggets 104, New Orleans Pelicans 91.
Denver Nuggets are 552-252 as favourite and 206-321 as underdog, and 331-368 on the road (47% of 699 games, 2010–2026).
New Orleans Pelicans are 287-198 as favourite and 250-521 as underdog, and 332-330 at home (50% of 662 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DEN | NO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 552-252 | 287-198 |
| As underdog | 206-321 | 250-521 |
| At home | 470-229 | 332-330 |
| On the road | 331-368 | 237-422 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →