NBA
Dallas Mavericks
7-5
Cleveland Cavaliers
6-6
Win Probability
The Dallas Mavericks travel to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers in a matchup where the home side holds a slight simulation advantage. Cooper Flagg carries the Mavericks' scoring load with a 49% chance of exceeding 35 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Donovan Mitchell leads Cleveland with a 47% chance of surpassing 33. The game hinges on perimeter shooting: Kyrie Irving has a 47% chance of beating 29 combined, and James Harden sits at 48% for the Cavaliers, making ball-handling and three-point creation the decisive factors. AccuScore's model favoured the home team in seven previous games of similar probability shape, winning five of them. For Dallas to pull the upset, it would need elite perimeter play while limiting Cleveland's secondary scorers.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CLE | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -155 | -2.7% | +124 | -2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -151 | -2.2% | +131 | -0.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers 57% to beat Dallas Mavericks (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland Cavaliers the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cleveland Cavaliers a 57% chance of beating Dallas Mavericks, against 43% for Dallas Mavericks. Cleveland Cavaliers are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Dallas Mavericks (7-5 so far) project to finish 36.9–45.1 and make the playoffs in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cleveland Cavaliers (6-6 so far) project to finish 45.0–37.0 and make the playoffs in 75% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 36.9–45.1 | 2% | 30% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 45.0–37.0 | 26% | 75% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Cleveland Cavaliers have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2011: Dallas Mavericks 16, Cleveland Cavaliers 15. The last meeting, on Mar 15, 2026, finished Dallas Mavericks 130, Cleveland Cavaliers 120.
Dallas Mavericks are 443-218 as favourite and 227-422 as underdog, and 310-382 on the road (45% of 692 games, 2010–2026).
Cleveland Cavaliers are 470-221 as favourite and 197-448 as underdog, and 407-298 at home (58% of 705 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 443-218 | 470-221 |
| As underdog | 227-422 | 197-448 |
| At home | 393-293 | 407-298 |
| On the road | 310-382 | 301-398 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →