NBA
Detroit Pistons
8-3
Miami Heat
5-6
Win Probability
The Detroit Pistons travel to Miami to face the Heat in a matchup where AccuScore's simulation clearly favours the visitors. Cade Cunningham projects to exceed 40 combined points, rebounds and assists in half his simulations, while Bam Adebayo sits at 49% to clear 40 for Miami—a near coin-flip that underscores how tight the ancillary battle shapes up. The game turns on three-point shooting; whichever team finds its stroke from distance is likeliest to control pace and spacing. In 5,693 graded games where the model leaned this strongly to one side, that side won 66% of the time. For Miami to pull the upset at home, the Heat would need to dominate offensive glass and force turnovers at rates their recent form has not sustained.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MIA | EV | DET | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +152 | -4.9% | -191 | -1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +169 | -1.8% | -196 | -1.5% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Pistons 64% to beat Miami Heat (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Detroit Pistons the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Miami Heat a 36% chance of beating Detroit Pistons, against 64% for Detroit Pistons. Miami Heat are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Detroit Pistons (8-3 so far) project to finish 53.8–28.2 and make the playoffs in 93% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Miami Heat (5-6 so far) project to finish 40.1–41.9 and make the playoffs in 59% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 53.8–28.2 | 69% | 93% |
| Miami Heat | 40.1–41.9 | 24% | 59% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Detroit Pistons have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Miami Heat have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 55 times since 2010: Detroit Pistons 19, Miami Heat 36. The last meeting, on Oct 23, 2026, finished Detroit Pistons 128, Miami Heat 111.
Detroit Pistons are 276-172 as favourite and 226-567 as underdog, and 210-443 on the road (32% of 653 games, 2010–2026).
Miami Heat are 591-273 as favourite and 208-301 as underdog, and 470-245 at home (66% of 715 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DET | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 276-172 | 591-273 |
| As underdog | 226-567 | 208-301 |
| At home | 307-345 | 470-245 |
| On the road | 210-443 | 367-356 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →