Los Angeles FC
St. Louis City
Win Probability
Moneyline
LAFC
+150
27.5% win prob
EV -15.6%
FanDuel
Draw
Draw
+270
24% prob
EV -6.2%
FanDuel
Moneyline
STL
+155
48.8% win prob
EV +12.2%
FanDuel
When Los Angeles FC travels to St. Louis City, the simulation strongly favors the hosts, projecting a narrow St. Louis victory. The game hinges on whether Los Angeles can generate enough attacking threat to overcome St. Louis City's home advantage; across eight statistically similar matchups, the favored side won five times. For Los Angeles to pull off the upset, they would need to convert their chances at an exceptional rate while keeping St. Louis City's attack contained, a difficult task on the road.
| Book | LAFC | EV | Draw | EV | STL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +150 | -15.6% | +270 | -6.2% | +155 | +12.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +140 | -17.0% | +260 | -7.3% | +150 | +11.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +127 | +8.6% | -154 | -10.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 3.5 | +120 | +6.8% | -167 | -11.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 3.5 | +137 | +11.2% | -161 | -10.8% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +125 | +8.1% | -175 | -12.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | 2.5 | -200 | +4.2% | +145 | -16.1% |
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MLS
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Louis City 49% to win, Los Angeles FC 28%, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Louis City the more likely winner at 49%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. Louis City a 49% chance of beating Los Angeles FC, with 28% for Los Angeles FC and 24% for a draw. St. Louis City are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Los Angeles FC and St. Louis City come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Los Angeles FC have won 1 of their last 5, drawing 2 (L-L-D-D-W, most recent first).
St. Louis City have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2023: Los Angeles FC 5, St. Louis City 1, 2 drawn. The last meeting, on May 14, 2026, finished Los Angeles FC 1, St. Louis City 2.