NCAAB
Manhattan
0-2
Maine
1-1
Win Probability
Manhattan travels to Maine in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. The Quakers arrive 0-2 while Maine sits 1-1, and the model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on perimeter shooting—Manhattan's depth at guard will need to generate consistent offense to keep pace. Maine's balance should prove decisive; in 2,176 graded games where the model leaned this strongly toward one side, that side won 68% of the time. For Manhattan to pull the upset, its guards would need to overcome a Maine team that the simulation expects to control pace and limit possessions.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ME | EV | MAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -299 | -7.3% | -115 | -16.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Maine 64% to beat Manhattan (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Maine the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Maine a 64% chance of beating Manhattan, against 36% for Manhattan. Maine are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Manhattan (0-2 so far) project to finish 10.4–20.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Maine (1-1 so far) project to finish 13.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Manhattan and Maine come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.