NCAAB
Central Connecticut
0-2
Dartmouth
2-0
Win Probability
Central Connecticut travels to Hanover to face Dartmouth, with the simulation favoring the hosts decisively. The game turns on perimeter shooting: if Central Connecticut can match Dartmouth's accuracy from three, the visitors have a path to the upset, but the model projects the Blue looking more efficient overall. In games where AccuScore has leaned this strongly toward the home side, that team won 81% of 1,326 past matchups. For Central Connecticut to pull off the road win, they would need to force turnovers and convert them into points at a rate the simulation does not project.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | DART | EV | CCSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -628 | -4.4% | +147 | -23.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Dartmouth 79% to beat Central Connecticut (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Dartmouth the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Dartmouth a 79% chance of beating Central Connecticut, against 21% for Central Connecticut. Dartmouth are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Central Connecticut (0-2 so far) project to finish 9.5–17.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Dartmouth (1-0 so far) project to finish 13.1–11.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Connecticut | 9.5–17.5 | 8% | 11% |
| Dartmouth | 13.1–11.9 | 10% | 9% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Central Connecticut and Dartmouth come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Central Connecticut have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).