Southern
0-2
Drake
1-0
Win Probability
Southern travels to face Drake in a matchup the simulation favors decisively. The Jaguars arrive winless, and Drake's offensive firepower shapes this contest: the projection hinges on Southern's defence holding the Bulldogs below 83 points, a threshold the model breaches in just under half its simulations. On games where AccuScore leaned this strongly toward the home side, that side won 97% of 557 graded contests. For Southern to pull the upset, it would need to generate offence well above its projection while containing Drake's scoring—a combination the model assigns just a 9% chance of reaching.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | DRKE | EV | SOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -3582 | -3.2% | -2659 | -45.4% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Drake 91% to beat Southern (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Drake the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Drake a 91% chance of beating Southern, against 9% for Southern. Drake are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Southern and Drake come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Southern (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.3–17.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 12% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Drake project to finish 17.5–13.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →