NCAAB
Norfolk State
2-0
William & Mary
1-0
Win Probability
Norfolk State travels to William & Mary in a matchup where the simulation favors the hosts decisively. William & Mary's depth will be tested early; the model projects the visitors to stay within reach through much of the game, but the Tribe's ability to sustain scoring in the second half is what separates the teams in 50,000 simulations. In games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the home side, it has won 81 percent of the time across a sample of 1,326 contests. Norfolk State would need to neutralize William & Mary's pace and force an unusually low-scoring affair to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | W&M | EV | NORF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -316 | -0.4% | -1274 | -36.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes William & Mary 75% to beat Norfolk State (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes William & Mary the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives William & Mary a 75% chance of beating Norfolk State, against 25% for Norfolk State. William & Mary are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Norfolk State project to finish 9.8–18.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
William & Mary project to finish 11.2–17.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norfolk State | 9.8–18.2 | 10% | 9% |
| William & Mary | 11.2–17.8 | 3% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →