Los Angeles Lakers
11-2
Phoenix Suns
5-6
Win Probability
The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Phoenix to face the Suns in a matchup where the visiting side holds a clear simulation lean. AccuScore projects a tight affair decided by perimeter shooting: the Lakers' ball movement will test Phoenix's ability to stay attached to shooters, while the Suns' transition game offers their best path to offensive rhythm. In games shaped like this one, the model's favored side has won 56% of the time across a large sample. For Phoenix to pull the upset at home, they would need to dictate pace and force the Lakers into a grind where their depth matters less.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LAL ML
LAL -132
-2.1% EV
52.4% leads · push 3.7%
bet365 ↗
1H PHO ML
PHO +110
-2.1% EV
43.9% leads · push 3.7%
bet365 ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | PHO | EV | LAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +3 | -105 | -2.8% | -108 | -0.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +2.5 | -111 | -5.4% | -111 | +0.5% |
| Betano ↗ | +2.5 | -108 | -4.8% | -114 | -0.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +2 | -105 | -5.6% | -120 | +0.1% |
| Novig ↗ | +3.5 | -111 | -2.7% | +104 | +1.2% |
| Book | PHO | EV | LAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +129 | -1.8% | -155 | -2.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +131 | -1.4% | -151 | -1.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 226 | -112 | -0.8% | -104 | -2.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 226.5 | -111 | -1.7% | -111 | -3.2% |
| Betano ↗ | 226.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -111 | -3.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 228 | -106 | -3.9% | -125 | -2.6% |
| William Hill ↗ | 226.5 | -125 | -4.3% | -110 | -3.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers 58% to beat Phoenix Suns (42%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers the more likely winner at 58%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Phoenix Suns a 42% chance of beating Los Angeles Lakers, against 58% for Los Angeles Lakers. Phoenix Suns are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Los Angeles Lakers (11-2 so far) project to finish 51.5–30.5 and make the playoffs in 80% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Phoenix Suns (5-6 so far) project to finish 38.6–43.4 and make the playoffs in 36% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 51.5–30.5 | 51% | 80% |
| Phoenix Suns | 38.6–43.4 | 10% | 36% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Los Angeles Lakers have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Phoenix Suns have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 70 times since 2010: Los Angeles Lakers 31, Phoenix Suns 39. The last meeting, on Apr 10, 2026, finished Phoenix Suns 73, Los Angeles Lakers 101.
Los Angeles Lakers are 433-220 as favourite and 214-440 as underdog, and 288-396 on the road (42% of 684 games, 2010–2026).
Phoenix Suns are 373-194 as favourite and 218-485 as underdog, and 358-317 at home (53% of 675 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | LAL | PHO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 433-220 | 373-194 |
| As underdog | 214-440 | 218-485 |
| At home | 391-298 | 358-317 |
| On the road | 288-396 | 268-394 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →