NCAAB
Minnesota
2-0
Cincinnati
2-0
Win Probability
When Minnesota travels to Cincinnati, the simulation decisively favours the Bearcats at home. Javontae Campbell has a 49% chance of exceeding 26 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Eric Mahaffey projects at 50% to clear 17—Cincinnati's depth will be tested by Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, who has a 45% chance of reaching 23 combined. The game hinges on whether Minnesota can generate enough offensive production to keep pace; across eight similar matchups, AccuScore's favoured side won 87.5% of the time. For the Golden Gophers to pull the upset, their role players like Isaac Asuma and Bobby Durkin would need to sustain scoring alongside Crocker-Johnson rather than relying on any single contributor.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | CIN | EV | MINN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Book | CIN | EV | MINN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -260 | -0.6% | +210 | -5.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | -12.5% | -110 | +7.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati 71% to beat Minnesota (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cincinnati the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cincinnati a 71% chance of beating Minnesota, against 29% for Minnesota. Cincinnati are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Minnesota (2-0 so far) project to finish 17.3–14.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 36% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cincinnati (2-0 so far) project to finish 20.4–11.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 60% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 17.3–14.7 | 1% | 36% |
| Cincinnati | 20.4–11.6 | 4% | 60% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Minnesota and Cincinnati come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Minnesota have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).