NCAAB
Oakland
0-3
#20Alabama
2-0
Win Probability
Oakland travels to face Alabama in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Chris Fields Jr. of Oakland has a 49% chance of exceeding 30 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Alabama's Aden Holloway projects at 49% to surpass 31 in the same category—a near-even split that masks a stark gap in overall firepower. The game turns on whether Oakland can generate consistent scoring depth; Josh Hill has a 50% chance of clearing 20 combined, but the visitors' next options drop off sharply. In 559 prior games where the model leaned this heavily toward one team, that side won 97% of the time. For Oakland to pull the upset, multiple contributors would need to simultaneously exceed their individual thresholds, a rare convergence on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | ALA | EV | OAK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -31 | -110 | -7.8% | -110 | +3.4% |
| Book | ALA | EV | OAK | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.3% | +9000 | -18.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 169.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama 99% to beat Oakland (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Alabama the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Alabama a 99% chance of beating Oakland, against 1% for Oakland. Alabama are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oakland (0-3 so far) project to finish 12.5–19.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Alabama (2-0 so far) project to finish 19.7–10.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Oakland and Alabama come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.