Illinois State
1-1
Purdue
0-2
Win Probability
Illinois State travels to face Purdue in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Purdue's Daniel Jacobsen projects a 50% chance of exceeding 29 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Illinois State's Mason Klabo has a 50% chance of surpassing 15 in the same category—a gap that captures the talent differential. The game turns on whether Illinois State's perimeter creators Chase Walker and Johnny Kinziger can generate efficient scoring; both project near 46% chances at 19 combined points, rebounds and assists, but they'll face a Purdue roster with multiple players capable of 48-50% efficiency marks. On games shaped this way across the historical record, AccuScore's favored side won 97% of 559 graded contests. Illinois State would need both Walker and Kinziger hitting at career rates while holding Purdue's complementary scorers well below projection to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | PUR | EV | ILST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | -15.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -15.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
| Book | PUR | EV | ILST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -1300 | -1.2% | +800 | -7.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars ↗ | 144.5 | -110 | +2.8% | -110 | -7.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 144 | -110 | +4.1% | -110 | -8.6% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue 91% to beat Illinois State (9%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue the more likely winner at 91%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Purdue a 91% chance of beating Illinois State, against 9% for Illinois State. Purdue are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Illinois State (0-1 so far) project to finish 17.1–12.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Purdue (0-2 so far) project to finish 19.9–12.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State | 17.1–12.9 | 16% | 20% |
| Purdue | 19.9–12.1 | 7% | 78% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Illinois State and Purdue come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Illinois State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Purdue have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).