NBA
Dallas Mavericks
7-5
Boston Celtics
10-2
Win Probability
The Dallas Mavericks travel to face the Boston Celtics in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Boston's depth will be tested early; the model projects Jayson Tatum to exceed 26.5 points in 64% of simulations, while Luka Doncic of Dallas clears 28.5 points in 58% of outcomes. The deciding factor is perimeter execution: if Boston's three-point volume stays efficient, Dallas will struggle to keep pace despite Doncic's scoring load. On games shaped this way statistically, the favored side has won 66% across a large historical sample. For the Mavericks to pull the upset, they would need to force turnovers and convert fast-break opportunities at an elite rate.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BOS | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -564 | -9.1% | +456 | +34.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -552 | -9.0% | +465 | +36.2% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Celtics 70% to beat Dallas Mavericks (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boston Celtics the more likely winner at 70%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Boston Celtics a 70% chance of beating Dallas Mavericks, against 31% for Dallas Mavericks. Boston Celtics are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Dallas Mavericks (7-5 so far) project to finish 37.3–44.7 and make the playoffs in 32% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Boston Celtics (10-2 so far) project to finish 60.2–21.8 and make the playoffs in 98% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 37.3–44.7 | 2% | 32% |
| Boston Celtics | 60.2–21.8 | 70% | 98% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
Boston Celtics have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 37 times since 2010: Dallas Mavericks 18, Boston Celtics 19. The last meeting, on Mar 6, 2026, finished Dallas Mavericks 100, Boston Celtics 120.
Dallas Mavericks are 443-218 as favourite and 227-422 as underdog, and 310-382 on the road (45% of 692 games, 2010–2026).
Boston Celtics are 672-291 as favourite and 165-263 as underdog, and 497-234 at home (68% of 731 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DAL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 443-218 | 672-291 |
| As underdog | 227-422 | 165-263 |
| At home | 393-293 | 497-234 |
| On the road | 310-382 | 387-337 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →