Houston Rockets
10-3
Washington Wizards
4-9
Win Probability
The Houston Rockets travel to face the Washington Wizards in a matchup that heavily favors the visitors. AccuScore's simulation leans decisively toward Houston, which projects to win by roughly 11 points. The game turns on three-point shooting: Rockets forwards have a 68% chance of exceeding 8.5 makes, while Wizards guards project just a 44% chance of the same mark. In similar spots over comparable games, the favored side has won 75% of the time. Washington would need to suppress Houston's perimeter volume and convert at an unusually high rate itself to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | WAS | EV | HOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +398 | +4.8% | -490 | -3.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +406 | +5.7% | -480 | -2.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets 78% to beat Washington Wizards (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Houston Rockets the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Wizards a 22% chance of beating Houston Rockets, against 78% for Houston Rockets. Washington Wizards are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Houston Rockets (9-3 so far) project to finish 54.1–27.9 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington Wizards (4-9 so far) project to finish 27.0–55.0 and make the playoffs in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 54.1–27.9 | 30% | 87% |
| Washington Wizards | 27.0–55.0 | 3% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Houston Rockets and Washington Wizards come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Houston Rockets have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Washington Wizards have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2010: Houston Rockets 23, Washington Wizards 8. The last meeting, on Mar 2, 2026, finished Houston Rockets 123, Washington Wizards 118.
Houston Rockets are 549-252 as favourite and 179-334 as underdog, and 309-377 on the road (45% of 686 games, 2010–2026).
Washington Wizards are 259-165 as favourite and 240-604 as underdog, and 318-347 at home (48% of 665 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | HOU | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 549-252 | 259-165 |
| As underdog | 179-334 | 240-604 |
| At home | 438-256 | 318-347 |
| On the road | 309-377 | 212-456 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →