NCAAB
SIU Edwardsville
2-1
Missouri
1-1
Win Probability
SIU Edwardsville travels to face Missouri in a game where the simulation strongly favors the home side. AccuScore's model leans decisively toward Mizzou, projecting a comfortable margin built on offensive execution—Missouri's offense has a 71% chance of exceeding 86 points, a floor the visitors will struggle to match. SIU Edwardsville's defense faces a stern test; holding Mizzou below that projection is the narrow path to an upset. In 559 games where the model favored a side this heavily, that side won 97% of the time. For the Cougars to pull off the road win, they would need to keep Missouri's scoring well below expectation while shooting efficiently themselves—a combination the simulation sees as highly unlikely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | MIZ | EV | SIUE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -28.5 | -115 | -10.6% | -105 | +6.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -28.5 | -110 | -9.8% | -110 | +5.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -29 | -110 | -11.3% | -110 | +6.9% |
| Book | MIZ | EV | SIUE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.5% | +7000 | -7.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149 | -110 | -10.1% | -110 | +5.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri 99% to beat SIU Edwardsville (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Missouri the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Missouri a 99% chance of beating SIU Edwardsville, against 1% for SIU Edwardsville. Missouri are at home and favoured on these numbers.
SIU Edwardsville (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.3–13.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Missouri (1-1 so far) project to finish 17.6–14.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 55% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| SIU Edwardsville | 13.3–13.7 | 17% | 14% |
| Missouri | 17.6–14.4 | 3% | 55% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How SIU Edwardsville and Missouri come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
SIU Edwardsville have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Missouri have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).