NCAAB
App State
2-0
Auburn
1-0
Win Probability
App State travels to Auburn in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the home side. Auburn's decisive advantage rests on scoring margin: the Tigers are projected to eclipse 84 points while holding App State below 63. On similar games where the model has leaned this heavily, the favoured team won 97% of the time across 559 graded contests, and 8 of 8 in the closest recent parallels. For App State to pull the upset, the Mountaineers would need to engineer a defensive performance well above their projection and keep Auburn's offence significantly below its simulated output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | AUB | EV | APP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -23.5 | -118 | -10.9% | -102 | +7.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -24 | -110 | -11.2% | -110 | +6.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -24.5 | -110 | -13.0% | -110 | +8.4% |
| Book | AUB | EV | APP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.3% | +2500 | -3.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -15000 | -1.5% | +2200 | -8.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -1.3% | +3000 | +5.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn 96% to beat App State (4%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Auburn the more likely winner at 96%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Auburn a 96% chance of beating App State, against 4% for App State. Auburn are at home and favoured on these numbers.
App State (1-0 so far) project to finish 18.2–10.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Auburn (1-0 so far) project to finish 19.7–10.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 73% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How App State and Auburn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.