Atlanta Hawks
7-6
Milwaukee Bucks
1-12
Win Probability
The Atlanta Hawks travel to face the Milwaukee Bucks in a matchup that heavily favours the visitors. AccuScore's simulation leans decisively toward Atlanta, backed by historical record: in 4,060 graded games where the model showed this level of conviction, the favoured side won 75% of the time. Trae Young projects to exceed 25.5 points in 68% of simulations, while Damian Lillard of Milwaukee sits at a 54% chance to clear 24.5 points—a gap that captures the difference between the teams. The deciding factor is whether Atlanta can convert its offensive efficiency into consistent shooting; if the Hawks cool from the floor, Milwaukee's depth gives it a genuine path to an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | MIL | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +266 | -1.1% | -360 | -3.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +286 | +1.5% | -333 | -2.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks 73% to beat Milwaukee Bucks (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Milwaukee Bucks a 27% chance of beating Atlanta Hawks, against 73% for Atlanta Hawks. Milwaukee Bucks are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Atlanta Hawks (7-5 so far) project to finish 44.4–37.6 and make the playoffs in 73% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Milwaukee Bucks (1-11 so far) project to finish 21.3–60.7 and make the playoffs in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 44.4–37.6 | 40% | 73% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 21.3–60.7 | <1% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Atlanta Hawks have won 3 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Milwaukee Bucks have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Atlanta Hawks 32, Milwaukee Bucks 29. The last meeting, on Mar 14, 2026, finished Milwaukee Bucks 99, Atlanta Hawks 122.
Atlanta Hawks are 406-216 as favourite and 246-446 as underdog, and 289-405 on the road (42% of 694 games, 2010–2026).
Milwaukee Bucks are 511-251 as favourite and 173-380 as underdog, and 419-270 at home (61% of 689 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | ATL | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 406-216 | 511-251 |
| As underdog | 246-446 | 173-380 |
| At home | 397-289 | 419-270 |
| On the road | 289-405 | 306-382 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →